• Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines

      Cooke, Roger M; Nauta, Maarten; Havelaar, Arie H; Fels, Ine van der (Elsevier, 2006-01-25)
      We discuss an application of probabilistic inversion techniques to a model of campylobacter transmission in chicken processing lines. Such techniques are indicated when we wish to quantify a model which is new and perhaps unfamiliar to the expert community. In this case there are no measurements for estimating model parameters, and experts are typically unable to give a considered judgment. In such cases, experts are asked to quantify their uncertainty regarding variables which can be predicted by the model. The experts’ distributions (after combination) are then pulled back onto the parameter space of the model, a process termed “probabilistic inversion”. This study illustrates two such techniques, iterative proportional fitting (IPF) and PARmeter fitting for uncertain models (PARFUM). In addition, we illustrate how expert judgement on predicted observable quantities in combination with probabilistic inversion may be used for model validation and/or model criticism.
    • Safety distances for hydrogen filling stations

      Matthijsen, A J C M; Kooi, E S (Elsevier, 2006-06-30)
      In the context of spatial planning the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment asked the Centre for External Safety of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) to advice on safe distances pertaining to hydrogen filling stations. The RIVM made use of failure modeling and parameters for calculating the distance in detail. An imaginary hydrogen filling station for cars is used in the determination of ‘external safety’ or third party distances for the installations and the pipe work for three different sizes of hydrogen filling stations. For several failure scenarios ‘effect’ distances are calculated for car filling at 350 and 700 bar. Safe distances of filling stations from locations where people live and work appear to be similar for compressed hydrogen, gasoline/petrol and compressed natural gas. Safe distances for LPG are greater. A filling unit for hydrogen can be placed at gasoline/petrol-filling stations without increasing safety distances