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    Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs.

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    Authors
    Massoud, Elias C
    Huisman, Jef
    Benincà, Elisa
    Dietze, Michael C
    Bouten, Willem
    Vrugt, Jasper A
    Type
    Article
    Language
    en
    
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    Title
    Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs.
    Published in
    Ecol Lett 2017; 21(1):93-103
    Publiekssamenvatting
    The daunting complexity of ecosystems has led ecologists to use mathematical modelling to gain understanding of ecological relationships, processes and dynamics. In pursuit of mathematical tractability, these models use simplified descriptions of key patterns, processes and relationships observed in nature. In contrast, ecological data are often complex, scale-dependent, space-time correlated, and governed by nonlinear relations between organisms and their environment. This disparity in complexity between ecosystem models and data has created a large gap in ecology between model and data-driven approaches. Here, we explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman filter to fuse a two-predator-two-prey model with abundance data from a 2600+ day experiment of a plankton community. We analyse how frequently we must assimilate measured abundances to predict accurately population dynamics, and benchmark our population model's forecast horizon against a simple null model. Results demonstrate that DA enhances the predictability and forecast horizon of complex community dynamics.
    DOI
    10.1111/ele.12876
    PMID
    29178243
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/621564
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1111/ele.12876
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