Modelling the Impact of Different Tuberculosis Control Interventions on the Prevalence of Tuberculosis in an Overcrowded Prison.

Naning, Herlianna; Al-Darraji, Haider Abdulrazzaq Abed; Mcdonald, Scott Alex; Ismail, Noor Azina; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

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Authors

Naning, Herlianna
Al-Darraji, Haider Abdulrazzaq Abed
Mcdonald, Scott Alex
Ismail, Noor Azina
Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

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Article

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Title

Modelling the Impact of Different Tuberculosis Control Interventions on the Prevalence of Tuberculosis in an Overcrowded Prison.

Published in

Asia-Pac J Public Health 2018; 1:1010539518757229

Publiekssamenvatting

The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of tuberculosis (TB) treatment strategies interventions in an overcrowded and poorly ventilated prison with both high (5 months) and low (3 years) turnover of inmates against improved environmental conditions. We used a deterministic transmission model to simulate the effects of treatment of latent TB infection and active TB, or the combination of both treatment strategies. Without any intervention, the TB prevalence is estimated to increase to 8.8% for a prison with low turnover of inmates but modestly stabilize at 5.8% for high-turnover prisons in a 10-year period. Reducing overcrowding from 6 to 4 inmates per housing cell and increasing the ventilation rate from 2 to 12 air changes per hour combined with any treatment strategy would further reduce the TB prevalence to as low as 0.98% for a prison with low inmate turnover.