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    Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands.

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    Authors
    van Wijhe, M
    Tulen, A D
    Korthals Altes, H
    McDonald, S A
    de Melker, H E
    Postma, M J
    Wallinga, J
    Type
    Article
    Language
    en
    
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    Title
    Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands.
    Published in
    Epidemiol Infect 2018; 146(6):716-22
    Publiekssamenvatting
    Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919-2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9-87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0-97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1-87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3-73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4-87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccination programmes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.
    DOI
    10.1017/S0950268818000481
    PMID
    29534768
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/621680
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1017/S0950268818000481
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