Dynamic prediction model to identify young children at high risk of future overweight: Development and internal validation in a cohort study.

Abstract

After backward selection in a Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, the prediction model included the baseline predictors maternal BMI, paternal BMI, paternal education, birthweight, sex, ethnicity and indoor smoke exposure; and the longitudinal predictors BMI SDS, and the linear and quadratic terms of the growth curve describing a child's BMI SDS development over time, as well as the longitudinal predictors' interactions with age. The area under the curve of the model after internal validation was 0.845 and Nagelkerke R2 was 0.351.