Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate.
|dc.contributor.author||Velders, Guus J M|
|dc.contributor.author||Montzka, Stephen A|
|dc.contributor.author||Kuijpers, Lambert J M|
|dc.description.abstract||Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources.||en_US|
|dc.title||Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate.||en_US|
|dc.identifier.journal||Nat Commun 2020; 11(1):1380||en_US|