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dc.contributor.authorLickley, Megan
dc.contributor.authorSolomon, Susan
dc.contributor.authorFletcher, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorVelders, Guus J M
dc.contributor.authorDaniel, John
dc.contributor.authorRigby, Matthew
dc.contributor.authorMontzka, Stephen A
dc.contributor.authorKuijpers, Lambert J M
dc.contributor.authorStone, Kane
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-19T12:16:10Z
dc.date.available2020-08-19T12:16:10Z
dc.date.issued2020-03-17
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.pmid32184388
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10029/624153
dc.description.abstractChlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleQuantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate.en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.journalNat Commun 2020; 11(1):1380en_US
dc.source.journaltitleNature communications


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