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    The chronic diseases modelling approach

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    Authors
    Hoogenveen RT
    Hollander AEM de
    Genugten MLL van
    Series/Report no.
    RIVM rapport 266750001
    Type
    Report
    Language
    en
    
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    Title
    The chronic diseases modelling approach
    Translated Title
    De aanpak van de chronische ziekten modellering
    Publiekssamenvatting
    A mathematical model structure is described that can be used to simulate the changes of the Dutch public health state over time. The model is based on the concept of demographic and epidemiologic processes (events) and is mathematically based on the lifetable method. The population is divided over several states, risk factor classes and disease stadia. State transitions over time are possible due to birth, aging, migration, mortality, transitions between risk factor classes, disease incidence, progression and remission. The main model parameters are initial population numbers, initial risk factor class and disease stadium prevalence rates, one-year transition rates between the risk factor classes and disease stadia, and risk factor-cause-specific relative risks. The model is used to describe the public health effects of possible intervention programs. These effects can be defined in terms of classic epidemiologic morbidity and mortality figures, but also in terms of life and health expectancy. Several examples of model applications are described: comparing trend extrapolations and model predictions on cause-specific mortality, and comparing the effects of different intervention programs on population smoking and physical activity levels.
    Een wiskundige modelstructuur wordt beschreven waarmee veranderingen van de gezondheidstoestand van de Nederlandse bevolking gesimuleerd kunnen worden. Het model is gebaseerd op het concept van demografische en epidemiologische processen (gebeurtenissen) en is afgeleid van de overlevingstafel. De bevolking wordt verdeeld over verschillende mogelijke toestanden, namelijk voor onderscheiden risicofactoren in verschillende klassen en voor onderscheiden ziekten in een of meer stadia. Toestandsveranderingen zijn mogelijk ten gevolge van geboorte, veroudering, migratie, sterfte, verandering van risicofactor-klasse, incidentie, voortschrijding van de ziekte en remissie. De belangrijkste modelparameters zijn initiele bevolkingsaantallen, initiele risicofactor en ziekte-prevalentiefracties, eenjaars overgangskansen tussen de risicofactor-klassen en ziektestadia, en risicofactor-oorzaak-specifieke relatieve risico's. Het model wordt gebruikt om de gezondheidseffecten door te rekenen van mogelijke beleidsmaatregelen, interventies etc. Enkele voorbeelden worden beschreven van verschillende modeltoepassingen: een vergelijking van trendextrapolaties en modelmatige vooruit-berekeningen voor oorzaak-specifieke sterfte, en een vergelijking van de effectiviteit van verschillende mogelijke anti-roken en meer-bewegen campagnes.
    Publisher
    Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/9952
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