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    Drijvende krachten achter technologieontwikkeling in productiesectoren. Schets van een expertondersteunende methodiek voor prognoses

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    Authors
    Schijndel MW van
    Ros JPM
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
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    Title
    Drijvende krachten achter technologieontwikkeling in productiesectoren. Schets van een expertondersteunende methodiek voor prognoses
    Translated Title
    Driving forces behind technology development in production processes. Outline of an expert supporting forecasting methodology
    Publiekssamenvatting
    De kans dat en de termijn waarop de ontwikkeling van een nieuwe technologie zal leiden tot marktintroductie hangen samen met algemene karakteristieken van die specifieke technologie en van de sociale omgeving waarin de technologie zich ontwikkelt. Het RIVM heeft een verkennende studie uitgevoerd naar de drijvende krachten achter technologieontwikkeling in productieprocessen, waarbij de rol die diverse actoren in de ontwikkeling spelen van groot belang is. Op basis van recente wetenschappelijke inzichten in de technologiedynamica is een lijst van factoren opgesteld, die de drijvende krachten achter technologieontwikkeling karakteriseren. Speciale aandacht is gegeven aan de invloed van overheidsbeleid. Historische casestudies zijn uitgevoerd om inzicht te krijgen in praktijkwaarden voor de lengte van (delen van) ontwikkelingstrajecten van milieurelevante technologieen. Onderzocht is hoe de totale lengte van (delen van) ontwikkelingstrajecten samenhangen met algemene karakteristieken van een specifieke technologie. De studie heeft geresulteerd in een schets van een prognosemethodiek, waarin met name aangegeven is welk type beleid (via welke typen beleidsinstrumenten) hierop van invloed is. Deze methode kan experts met kennis van productiesectoren en van nieuwe milieurelevante technologie6n ondersteunen bij het maken van inschattingen omtrent de kans waarmee en de termijn waarop die nieuwe technologie6n tot marktintroductie kunnen komen.
    Both the chance that a new specific technology under development will lead to introduction on the market and the period in which this introduction takes place are connected with the general characteristics of that specific technology and the social environment in which it is developing. The National Institute of Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands has carried out an exploratory study on the driving forces connected with technology development in production processes, in which the interaction between the various actors involved is considered to be of great importance. Based on recent scientific insights into technology dynamics, a list of factors characterizing the driving forces connected with technology development has been drawn up. Special attention has been given to the influence of public policy. Historical case studies were also carried out to gain insight into the length of the various (parts of) technology trajectories in practice for new technologies reducing environmental problems. Investigated was the way the total length (in years) of a development trajectory is connected with general characteristics of a specifc technology. The study has resulted in an outline of a technology forecasting methodology, in which particularly the possible influences of different types of public policy instruments are indicated. This methodology can support experts with knowledge on industrial sectors and new technologies that might reduce environmental problems in these sectors. They then will be able to both assess the chance of a new technological development leading to a specific commercial application and estimate the time this will take.
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    RIVM
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/258316
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