The impact of aircraft exhaust emissions on the atmosphere ; scenario studies with a three dimensional global model
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Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Report
Language
en
Date
1995-05-31
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
The impact of aircraft exhaust emissions on the
atmosphere ; scenario studies with a three dimensional global
model
Translated Title
Effecten van vliegtuigemissies op de atmosfeer ;
scenario studies met een mondiaal drie dimensionaal
model
Published in
Abstract
In dit rapport worden de resultaten beschreven van een
studie naar de effecten van vliegtuigemissies op de atmosfeer, met name de
veranderingen in de hoge troposfeer. Deze studie is uitgevoerd in het kader
van het project "Luchtverontreiniging en Luchtvaart" (LuLu). Het LuLu
onderzoeks-programma is opgezet ten behoeve van de wetenschappelijke
ondersteuning van de Parlementaire Nota LuLu. Hoofdvragen in deze studie
waren: (1) Hoe groot is de toename van de stikstofoxide (NOx) concentraties
ten gevolge van vliegtuigemissies op kruishoogte? (2) Wat zijn daarvan de
effecten op de concentraties van ozon (O3) en verwante stoffen in de
troposfeer? (3) Welke rol spelen processen in vliegcorridors? (4) Wat zijn
de effecten van de emissies van toekomstig vliegverkeer? (5) Welke zijn de
gevolgen van veranderingen veroorzaakt door vliegverkeer in relatie tot de
NMP milieuthema's: het broeikaseffect, aantasting van de ozonlaag, zure
depositie en ozontoename op leefniveau? De veranderingen in de
concentraties van stikstofoxiden (NOx), salpeterzuur (HNO3), ozon (O3) en
het hydroxyl radicaal (OH) veroorzaakt door vliegverkeer zijn berekend met
behulp van het mondiale drie-dimensionale chemisch-transport model MOGUNTIA.
De berekende relatieve toenames in de achtergrondconcentraties op
kruisvluchthoogte (9-12 km) tussen 30-60 graden N, veroorzaakt door huidige
vliegtuigemissies, is achtereenvolgens voor NOx: 20-70%, HNO3: 10-20%, O3:
1-4,5% en OH: 5-15%. Deze resultaten zijn consistent met andere studies.
In de huidige modelstudies naar effecten van vliegtuigemissies wordt
instantane grootschalige menging van de emissies verondersteld waarbij de
kleinschalige processen in de uitlaatpluim en de vliegcorridors verwaarloosd
worden. Deze processen zijn verdisconteerd in de emissievelden in de
voorliggende studie met behulp van een eenvoudige parameterisatie van de
zogenaamde sub-grid chemie, ontwikkeld met een vliegtuig-uitlaat-pluimmodel.
Hierbij is uitgegaan van een gaussische pluimgroei. In de 'nieuwe'
emissievelden zijn de NOx emissies gedifferentieerd in NOx (30%) en NOy
(70%) verbindingen (HNO3, HO2NO2 and N2O5). De berekende relatieve bijdrage
van vliegverkeer in de veranderingen in de concentraties van NOx, O3 en OH
zijn dan ook kleiner (10-60%), daar in deze scenario's een deel van de NOx
emissies omgezet is in een niet O3 producerende vorm. De effecten van
toekomstig vliegverkeer zijn berekend voor de jaren 2003 en 2015 met behulp
van drie verschillende CPB scenario's: European Renaissance, Global Shift
and Balanced Growth. Deze scenario's onderscheiden zich van elkaar in hun
verschillende regionale economische groei. De berekende relatieve toename
op kruisvluchthoogte ten opzichte van 1990 tussen 30-60 graden N zijn
50-370% voor NOx en 1,5-11% voor O3. De grootte van de effecten ten gevolge
van vliegverkeer zal relatief toenemen ten opzichte van de overige
antropogene bronnen. De effecten van vliegverkeeremissies zijn
gekwantificeerd in relatie tot de NMP milieuthema's: het broeikaseffect,
aantasting van de ozonlaag, zure depositie en ozontoename op leefniveau. De
onnauwkeurigheden zijn nog erg groot door de vele onzekerheden in de
effecten van de verschillende geemitteerde stoffen. Het huidige en
toekomstige subsone vliegverkeer draagt voor ongeveer 1-3% bij aan de
stralingsforcering sinds de industriele revolutie. De effecten van
vliegverkeer op de andere NMP milieuthema's zijn klein. Wel groeit het
vliegverkeer sneller dan elke andere vervoerssector. Haar relatieve belang
neemt dan ook toe. De bijdrage van vliegverkeer aan het broeikaseffect
lijkt van de bovengenoemde milieu-effecten de grootste.
This report describes the results of a study on the impact of aircraft exhaust emissions on the atmosphere. This study has been carried out within the framework of the Dutch national research programme 'Luchtverontreiniging en Luchtvaart' (Air Pollution and Aviation). This programme has been set up as a scientific contribution to the preparation of the bill on air pollution and aircraft, the 'Nota Luchtverontreiniging en Luchtvaart' (LuLu).The objectives of this study were to study the effects of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and other exhaust species from aircraft using the three dimensional (3D) model MOGUNTIA, in particular with respect to changes in the upper troposphere. The main questions were: (1) What are the increases of NOx concentrations due to aircraft emissions? (2) What are the effects of the emissions with respect to changes in the concentrations of ozone (O3) and related species? (3) How large are plume and corridor effects? (4) What are the effects of emissions of future air traffic? (5) What are the consequences of aircraft emissions with respect to the in the Netherlands so-called environmental themes: the enhanced greenhouse effect, the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, acid deposition and surface pollution by ozone? The changes due to aircraft emissions in the concentrations of NOx, nitric acid (HNO3), O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH) have been calculated with the global 3D chemical-transport model MOGUNTIA. The calculated relative increases in the background concentrations of NOx, HNO3, O3 and OH at cruising heights (9-12 km) between 30-60 degrees N in 1990 due to aircraft emissions are for NOx: 20-70%, HNO3: 10-20%, O3: 1-4.5% and OH: 5-15%, respectively. These figures are consistent with other studies. However, it must be kept in mind that many uncertainties are left in tropospheric modelling. The chemical processes in an aircraft plume in the upper troposphere occurring before large-scale mixing were studied with an Aircraft Exhaust Plume Model. We assumed a gaussian plume growth. To take the sub-grid processes into account in the 3D model study, a parameterisation of the subgrid chemistry was developed with which the base aircraft emission fields can be processed. In the processed emission fields then, the NOx emissions are differentiated into NOx (30%) and NOy (70%) species (HNO3, pernitric acid (HO2NO2) and nitrogen pentoxide (N2O5)). As part of the NOx emissions are converted in a non-O3 producing form, the calculated relative contribution of aircraft to the changes in the concentrations of NOx, O3 and OH are also smaller (10-60%) in these scenarios. No large changes occur in the global distribution. The effects of future air traffic have been calculated for the years 2003 and 2015 using three different scenarios: European Renaissance, Global Shift and Balanced Growth. The scenarios differ for different regional economic growths. Effects are increasing regardless of the scenario used. Calculated relative increases at cruising heights between 30-60 degrees N are 50-370% for NOx and 1.5-11% for O3, respectively. The importance of effects due to aircraft emissions is also growing relative to the effects of other anthropogenic surface emissions. We quantified the effects of subsonic aircraft with respect to the so-called environmental themes: the enhanced greenhouse effect, the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, acid deposition and surface pollution by ozone. However, this is still very difficult to do due to the large uncertainties in the effects of many of the emitted species. The current subsonic air traffic has little global influence on the greenhouse effect: 1-3% of the global radiative forcing since pre-industrial times. The model used is a global model with limited suitability for acidification, photochemical smog and ozone layer studies. Other studies showed very little influence of aviation on acid deposition, the depletion of the ozone layer and the amount of ozone at surface level. However, air traffic is growing faster than other means of travel and therefore the relative importance will grow as well. With respect to the so-called environmental themes the impact of aircraft emissions on the greenhouse effect seems to be the most important consequence of air traffic at this moment.
This report describes the results of a study on the impact of aircraft exhaust emissions on the atmosphere. This study has been carried out within the framework of the Dutch national research programme 'Luchtverontreiniging en Luchtvaart' (Air Pollution and Aviation). This programme has been set up as a scientific contribution to the preparation of the bill on air pollution and aircraft, the 'Nota Luchtverontreiniging en Luchtvaart' (LuLu).The objectives of this study were to study the effects of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and other exhaust species from aircraft using the three dimensional (3D) model MOGUNTIA, in particular with respect to changes in the upper troposphere. The main questions were: (1) What are the increases of NOx concentrations due to aircraft emissions? (2) What are the effects of the emissions with respect to changes in the concentrations of ozone (O3) and related species? (3) How large are plume and corridor effects? (4) What are the effects of emissions of future air traffic? (5) What are the consequences of aircraft emissions with respect to the in the Netherlands so-called environmental themes: the enhanced greenhouse effect, the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, acid deposition and surface pollution by ozone? The changes due to aircraft emissions in the concentrations of NOx, nitric acid (HNO3), O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH) have been calculated with the global 3D chemical-transport model MOGUNTIA. The calculated relative increases in the background concentrations of NOx, HNO3, O3 and OH at cruising heights (9-12 km) between 30-60 degrees N in 1990 due to aircraft emissions are for NOx: 20-70%, HNO3: 10-20%, O3: 1-4.5% and OH: 5-15%, respectively. These figures are consistent with other studies. However, it must be kept in mind that many uncertainties are left in tropospheric modelling. The chemical processes in an aircraft plume in the upper troposphere occurring before large-scale mixing were studied with an Aircraft Exhaust Plume Model. We assumed a gaussian plume growth. To take the sub-grid processes into account in the 3D model study, a parameterisation of the subgrid chemistry was developed with which the base aircraft emission fields can be processed. In the processed emission fields then, the NOx emissions are differentiated into NOx (30%) and NOy (70%) species (HNO3, pernitric acid (HO2NO2) and nitrogen pentoxide (N2O5)). As part of the NOx emissions are converted in a non-O3 producing form, the calculated relative contribution of aircraft to the changes in the concentrations of NOx, O3 and OH are also smaller (10-60%) in these scenarios. No large changes occur in the global distribution. The effects of future air traffic have been calculated for the years 2003 and 2015 using three different scenarios: European Renaissance, Global Shift and Balanced Growth. The scenarios differ for different regional economic growths. Effects are increasing regardless of the scenario used. Calculated relative increases at cruising heights between 30-60 degrees N are 50-370% for NOx and 1.5-11% for O3, respectively. The importance of effects due to aircraft emissions is also growing relative to the effects of other anthropogenic surface emissions. We quantified the effects of subsonic aircraft with respect to the so-called environmental themes: the enhanced greenhouse effect, the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, acid deposition and surface pollution by ozone. However, this is still very difficult to do due to the large uncertainties in the effects of many of the emitted species. The current subsonic air traffic has little global influence on the greenhouse effect: 1-3% of the global radiative forcing since pre-industrial times. The model used is a global model with limited suitability for acidification, photochemical smog and ozone layer studies. Other studies showed very little influence of aviation on acid deposition, the depletion of the ozone layer and the amount of ozone at surface level. However, air traffic is growing faster than other means of travel and therefore the relative importance will grow as well. With respect to the so-called environmental themes the impact of aircraft emissions on the greenhouse effect seems to be the most important consequence of air traffic at this moment.
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