Global energy futures: An integrated perspective with the TIME-model
Citations
Altmetric:
Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Report
Language
en
Date
1996-12-31
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Global energy futures: An integrated perspective
with the TIME-model
Translated Title
Mondiale energieverkenningen: een geintegreerd
perspectief met het TIME model
Published in
Abstract
In een eerder verschenen rapport werden de vijf
submodellen van het energiemodel in detail beschreven. In dit rapport
worden een aantal toepassingen met het (stand alone) TIME-model
gepresenteerd. Het rapport beschrijft de kalibratie voor de wereld versie
voor de periode 1900-1990. Gegeven de exogene drivers zoals bevolking en
economische activiteiten worden de energievraag, de brandstofmix, de
brandstofprijzen, de energie-investeringen en de CO2-emissies berekend en
vergeleken met geobserveerde waarden. De aannamen om een goede fit te
krijgen met de historische data komen aan de orde, alsook de gebruikte
methodologie voor scenario constructie. Verder worden onzekerheden en
aannamen besproken aangaande structurele verandering, energie
efficiencyverbeteringen, lange termijn aanbod kostencurven van fossiele
brandstof voorraden en technologie voor alternatieve opties voor de aanbod
van energie. Een toepassingen van de scenario methodologie is besproken
voor het IS92a scenario van de IPCC (IPCC, 1992) en enkele scenario's van
andere instituten, waarbij aangegeven werd welke aannames nodig waren om ze
te reproduceren. Vervolgens komen respectievelijk aan de orde
energietoekomsten volgens alternatieve perspectieven, ofwel wereldbeelden ;
enkele optimale reductiestrategieen waarbij gebruik gemaakt is van het
CYCLES model van TARGETS om de milieu-impacts van de scenario's te
analyseren ; de rol van technologische verandering om de
klimaatdoelstellingen te halen.
In a previous report the five submodels of the energy model were described in detail. Here, a number of applications with the (stand-alone) TIME model are presented. In this report the calibration of the world version for the period 1900-1990 is described. Given the exogenous drivers like population size and economic activities, the energy demand, fuel mix, fuel prices, energy investments and CO2 emissions are calculated and compared with observed values. Assumptions to be made for deriving a suitable fit with the observed values were discussed as well as the methodology as used for scenario construction, uncertainties and assumptions on structural change, energy efficiency improvements, long-term supply cost curves of fossil fuel resources and technology in energy supply options. An application of the scenario methodology is discussed where a reference scenario is constructed based on the IS92a scenario of the IPCC. Furthermore, some scenarios from other institutions are investigated by assessing their outcomes in terms of the underlying assumptions. Next subjects described are futures according to alternative perspectives or world views ; some results of optimised mitigation strategies using the CYCLES module of TARGETS to assess the impacts of scenarios ; the role of technological change in meeting climate change policy targets.
In a previous report the five submodels of the energy model were described in detail. Here, a number of applications with the (stand-alone) TIME model are presented. In this report the calibration of the world version for the period 1900-1990 is described. Given the exogenous drivers like population size and economic activities, the energy demand, fuel mix, fuel prices, energy investments and CO2 emissions are calculated and compared with observed values. Assumptions to be made for deriving a suitable fit with the observed values were discussed as well as the methodology as used for scenario construction, uncertainties and assumptions on structural change, energy efficiency improvements, long-term supply cost curves of fossil fuel resources and technology in energy supply options. An application of the scenario methodology is discussed where a reference scenario is constructed based on the IS92a scenario of the IPCC. Furthermore, some scenarios from other institutions are investigated by assessing their outcomes in terms of the underlying assumptions. Next subjects described are futures according to alternative perspectives or world views ; some results of optimised mitigation strategies using the CYCLES module of TARGETS to assess the impacts of scenarios ; the role of technological change in meeting climate change policy targets.
Description
Publisher
Sponsors
RIVM