Climate Change and Malaria Risk ; an integrated modelling approach

Abstract

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In order to assess the impact of an anthropogenic climate change on the transmission of malaria, an integrated assessment model has been developed. In this integrated model, the direct effects of a change in temperature and precipitation on the transmission potential of a mosquito population are assessed by means of the vectorial capacity (defined as the number of potentially infective contacts inflicted by the mosquito population per infectious person per day) and the related critical mosquito density (the minimum number of mosquitoes needed to maintain malaria at an endemic level). The simulation results indicate a worldwide increase of potential malaria risk and an extension of the areas conductive to malaria transmission. In non-malarious areas the risk of introduction of malaria associated with imported cases of malaria increases to some extent as a result of the increasing importance of modern transport systems (e.g. air travel) in introducing malaria into receptive areas. However, sound interpretation of the change in malaria risk as simulated must be performed within the framework of local conditions and socio-economic developments.