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    Invloed veranderingen in inkomens, autokosten en snelheden op autobezit en -gebruik, energiegebruik en emissies

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    Authors
    Boose JJEC
    Wee GP van
    Egmond PM van
    Geurs KT
    Gommers FMC
    Series/Report no.
    RIVM Rapport 251701021
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
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    Title
    Invloed veranderingen in inkomens, autokosten en snelheden op autobezit en -gebruik, energiegebruik en emissies
    Translated Title
    Influence of income and price changes on car ownership and use, energy, and emissions
    Publiekssamenvatting
    The FACTS car computer model is used for predicting the influence of income and price changes on car ownership and use, and energy and emissions. The great number of simulations show that the macro-economic scenario is seen to influence the effect of income and price measures. The influence of pricing measures on car ownership and use depend on how price increases are introduced, e.g. an absolute or percentage-wise price increase, a general increase for all car models or an increase that varies with the car model (fuel, weight). Further, the influence of pricing measures depends on the cost item increased (e.g. fuel and other variable prices, sales taxes on new cars and annual road taxes). Finally, the effect of a measure changes over time. If two measures are combined, the overall effect is in 30% of the cases seen to differ from the 'expected' effect (if measures are independent). Sometimes combined price measures can even counteract each other, causing less effect than only one pricing measure. Emissions of VOC and NOx depend on the number of kilometres driven and changes in the share of the total diesel, petrol and LPG. For these two reasons it is recommended to simulate effects of combined measures and effects on VOC and NOx emissions rather than to use existing model output and/or literature studies on effects.
    Volgens het personenautomodel FACTS kennen prijsmaatregelen een verschillende invloed op het autobezit en gebruik, afhankelijk van de wijze waarop de maatregelen ingevoerd worden (procentueel of een vast bedrag, algemene maatregel of gedifferentieerd naar auto-/brandstoftype) en de kostenpost waarop de prijsmaatregel van toepassing is (MRB, BPM, brandstof, rekeningrijden e.d.). Daarnaast blijkt de invloed afhankelijk te zijn van de scenariocontext en de omvang van de prijsmaatregel. Tenslotte is het effect van de maatregel in de tijd niet constant. Indien twee prijsmaatregelen worden gecombineerd blijkt het effect in 30% van de gevallen af te wijken van het 'verwachte' effect (het gecombineerde effect bij 'onafhankelijkheid' van de maatregelen). Soms treedt zelfs onderlinge tegenwerking op. Emissies van NOx en VOS zijn naast veranderingen in de omvang van het autogebruik sterk afhankelijk van eventuele wijzigingen in de aandelen diesel, benzine en LPG. Vanwege de soms niet verwachte resultaten bij gecombineerde maatregelen en vanwege de gevoeligheid van de NOx- en VOS-emissies voor veranderingen in de aandelen benzine, diesel en LPG, verdient het aanbeveling beleidsvragen te beantwoorden met behulp van modelsimulaties in plaats van gebruik te maken van bekende simulaties en/of literatuur.
    Publisher
    Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/9931
    Collections
    RIVM official reports

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